Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil.

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.

Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022. / Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz - uma análise da evolução da pandemia de fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

A pandemia de COVID-19 teve um imenso impacto nas condições de vida e trabalho de toda a população do país, impactando de modo diferenciado e mais intenso os grupos considerados vulneráveis. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama da evolução da pandemia no país segundo os boletins do Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, no período entre as declarações de início e de encerramento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN), fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022. Foram utilizados diversos dos indicadores adotados nos 69 boletins publicados para a análise da pandemia, como casos e óbitos por SRAGs e COVID-19, grupos etários, taxas de ocupação de leitos UTI e vacinação, entre outros. A análise da evolução foi organizada entre anos e fases da pandemia, procurando destacar o que caracterizou cada momento. A declaração de encerramento da ESPIN no Brasil coincide com as discussões acerca da transição de pandemia para a endemia, sem que isso represente a eliminação do vírus, das infecções e da doença, colocando-se os desafios de avanços nos processos de vacinação no Brasil e no mundo e da convivência com cenários que poderão exigir a adoção de medidas de proteção temporárias em períodos epidêmicos e de maior risco para grupos vulneráveis.

Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz - uma análise da evolução da pandemia de fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022 / Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022

Resumo A pandemia de COVID-19 teve um imenso impacto nas condições de vida e trabalho de toda a população do país, impactando de modo diferenciado e mais intenso os grupos considerados vulneráveis. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama da evolução da pandemia no país segundo os boletins do Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, no período entre as declarações de início e de encerramento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN), fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022. Foram utilizados diversos dos indicadores adotados nos 69 boletins publicados para a análise da pandemia, como casos e óbitos por SRAGs e COVID-19, grupos etários, taxas de ocupação de leitos UTI e vacinação, entre outros. A análise da evolução foi organizada entre anos e fases da pandemia, procurando destacar o que caracterizou cada momento. A declaração de encerramento da ESPIN no Brasil coincide com as discussões acerca da transição de pandemia para a endemia, sem que isso represente a eliminação do vírus, das infecções e da doença, colocando-se os desafios de avanços nos processos de vacinação no Brasil e no mundo e da convivência com cenários que poderão exigir a adoção de medidas de proteção temporárias em períodos epidêmicos e de maior risco para grupos vulneráveis.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

O papel da informação e da comunicação em situações de emergência: a crise sanitária e humanitária no território Yanomami / The role of information and communication in emergency situations: the health and humanitarin crisis in the Yanomani territory / El papel de la información and de la comunicación en situaciones de emergencia: la crisis sanitaria y humanitaria en el territorio Yanomani

A crise humanitária no território Yanomami, agravada nos últimos anos com a invasão de atividades de garimpo, revela uma trama de fatores sociais, ambientais e políticos, que resultaram numa 'emergência' sanitária e humanitária, em seus diversos sentidos. O fluxo contínuo de levantamento de dados, a análise da situação e a comunicação de riscos é que podem revelar o contexto em que essa emergência ocorre e permitir a intervenção oportuna na crise. Nesta nota, procuramos identificar potencialidades e limitações dos dados existentes, informações e estratégias de comunicação voltadas para emergências de saúde.

The humanitarian crisis in the Yanomami territory, exacerbated in recent years by the invasion of mining activities, reveals a set of social, environmental and political factors that resulted in a health and humanita-rian 'emergency' in its various meanings. Only the continuous flow of data collection, situation analysis and risk communication can unveil the context in which this emergency occurs and allow appropriate interven-tion in the crisis. In this note, we seek to identify the potential and limitations of available data, information and communication strategies related to health emergencies.

La crisis humanitaria en el territorio Yanomami, agudizada en los últimos años por la invasión de las ac-tividades de minerías, revela un conjunto de factores sociales, ambientales y políticos, que resultan en la 'emergencia' sanitaria y humanitaria, en sus diversas acepciones. El flujo continuo de recopilación de datos, el análisis de la situación y la comunicación de riesgos es que pueden desvelar el contexto en el que se produce esta emergencia y permitir la intervención oportuna en la crisis. En esta nota, buscamos iden-tificar el potencial y las limitaciones de los datos existentes, informaciones y estrategias de comunicación relacionadas con las emergencias sanitarias.

As diferentes fases, os seus impactos e os desafios da pandemia de covid-19 no Brasil / The different stages, its impacts, and the challenges of the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil / Las diferentes fases, sus impactos y los desafíos de la pandemia de covid-19 e Brasil

A dinâmica da pandemia de covid-19 vem evoluindo segundo fases marcadas por uma maior ou menor taxa de infecção, e diferentes impactos sobre o sistema de saúde e a mortalidade. Essas fases foram estudadas segundo quatro indicadores disponibilizados no sistema MonitoraCovid-19: positividade de testes de diagnóstico, número de casos, número de óbitos e o número de pessoas com ao menos duas doses de vacinas ­ padronizados numa série histórica para permitir sua comparação. São distinguidas cinco fases, marcadas pela circulação de diferentes variantes do vírus, estratégias de implementação ­ ou mesmo boicote ­ de medidas de controle e a vacinação gradativa da população. Esses indicadores podem ser usados no futuro para monitorar tendências e apontar políticas públicas adequadas.

The dynamics of the covid-19 pandemic has evolved according to phases marked by a higher or lower rate of infection, the different impacts on the health system and mortality. These phases were studied according to four indicators made available by the MonitoraCovid-19 system: positivity rates of diagnostic tests, number of cases, number of deaths and number of people who received at least two vaccine doses, standardized in a historical series to allow their comparison. Five phases are discerned, evidenced by the circulation of different virus variants, strategies employed to implement -or even undermine ­ disease control measures and the gradual vaccination of the population. These indicators can be used in the future to monitor trends and point out appropriate public policies.

La dinámica de la pandemia de covid-19 ha evolucionado según fases marcadas por una mayor o menor tasa de contagios, sus diferentes impactos en el sistema de salud y mortalidad. Estas fases se estudiaron según cuatro indicadores disponibles en el sistema MonitoraCovid-19: positividad de las pruebas diagnósticas, número de casos, número de defunciones y el número de personas vacunadas con al menos dos dosis, estandarizados en una serie histórica para permitir su comparación. Se distinguen cuatro fases, marcadas por la circulación de diferentes variantes del virus, las estrategias de implementación - o mismo el boicoteode medidas de control y la paulatina vacunación de la población. Estos indicadores pueden utilizarse en el futuro para monitorear tendencias y señalar políticas públicas apropiadas.

ArboAlvo: stratification method for territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses.

OBJECTIVE: To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory. METHODS: Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra. RESULTS: The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs - higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%). CONCLUSION: The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

[ARBOALVO: territorial stratification for definition of areas for prompt response by surveillance and timely control of urban arbovirus infections]. / ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno.

The study aimed to present the methodological proposal entitled "Prompt Response", modelled in the cities of Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais State) and Natal (Rio Grande do Norte State), Brazil. The proposal aims to identify and demarcate priority areas for timely targeting of surveillance activities, aiming to reduce the intensity and velocity in the spread of epidemics in endemic urban areas. The methodology uses three variables that represent the necessary causes for the production and reproduction of dengue: notified cases (virus), Aedes eggs (vector), and population (host). This was an ecological study that used data from three information planes aggregated in finer temporal and spatial scales of 3 to 4 weeks and 400 to 600-meter grids, respectively. The prompt response areas were defined by Scan statistical analysis with definition of simultaneous spatial clusters for the three planes via the SaTScan program. In Natal, the areas defined as prompt response occupied, on average, 15.2% of the city's territory and concentrated 67.77% of the dengue cases in the period following demarcation of the prompt response areas. In Belo Horizonte, the observed proportions were 64.16% of cases in 23.23% of the territory. These results were obtained in two cities with different socioenvironmental and geographic realities and distinct epidemiological profiles, indicating that the methodology can be applied to different urban realities, allowing control programs to concentrate on reduced portions of the territory and impacting a high percentage of cases in timely fashion.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de "Pronta Resposta" modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

El objetivo del trabajo fue presentar la propuesta metodológica, denominada de "Resposta Rápida", modelada en las ciudades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) y Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. Esta última tiene como meta identificar y delimitar áreas prioritarias para la ejecución de acciones de vigilancia en el momento oportuno, buscando la reducción de la intensidad y velocidad de la dispersión de epidemias en áreas urbanas endémicas. Para tal fin, la metodología utiliza tres variables, que representan las causas necesarias para la producción y reproducción del dengue: casos notificados (virus), huevos de Aedes (vector) y población (huésped). Se trata de un estudio ecológico que utilizó los datos de los tres planos de información agregados en escalas temporales y espaciales más finas, de 3 a 4 semanas y tablas de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. Las áreas de respuesta rápida se definieron a través del análisis estadístico de exploración Scan, con definición de clústeres espaciales simultáneos para los tres planos mediante el programa SaTScan. Los resultados observados fueron: en la ciudad de Natal, las áreas definidas como de respuesta rápida ocuparon de media un 15,2% del territorio del municipio y concentraron un 67,77% de los casos de dengue del período posterior al utilizado en la delimitación de las áreas de respuesta rápida y, en Belo Horizonte, los números observados fueron un 64,16% de los casos en un 23,23% del territorio. Estos resultados se obtuvieron en dos ciudades con realidades socioambientales y geográficas diferentes y con perfiles epidemiológicos también distintos, apuntando que la metodología se puede aplicar en diferentes realidades urbanas. Dando la posibilidad de que los programas de control actúen en secciones reducidas del territorio e impactar en un alto porcentaje de casos en el momento oportuno.

Involvement of political and socio-economic factors in the spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil: A population-based study.

Background: Brazil has been severely impacted by COVID-19 pandemics that is aggravated by the absence of a scientifically-driven coordinated informative campaign and the interference in public health management, which ultimately affected health measures to avoid SARS-CoV2 spread. The decentralization and resultant conflicts in disease control activities produced different protection behaviours and local government measures. In the present study, we investigated how political partisanship and socio-economic factors determined the outcome of COVID-19 at the local level in Brazil. Methods: A retrospective study of COVID-19 deaths was carried out using mortality databases between Feb 2020, and Jun 2021 for the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. Socio-economic parameters including city categories, income and inequality indexes, health service quality and partisanship, assessed by the result of the second round of the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections, were included. Regression tree analysis was carried out to identify the statistical significance and conditioning relationships of variables. Findings: Municipalities that supported then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 elections were those that had the worst COVID-19 mortality rates, mainly during the second epidemic wave of 2021. This pattern was observed even considering structural inequalities among cities. Interpretation: In general, the first phase of the pandemic hit large and central cities hardest, while the second wave mostly impacted Bolsonarian municipalities, where scientific denialism among the population was stronger. Negative effects of partisanship towards the right-wing on COVID-19 outcomes counterbalances favourable socioeconomic indexes in affluent Brazilian cities. Our results underscore the fragility of public health policies which were undermined by the scientific denialism of right-wing supporters in Brazil. Funding: International joint laboratories of Institute de Recherche pour le Développement, a partnership between the University of Brasília and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (LMI-Sentinela - UnB - Fiocruz - IRD), Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

Ecological and environmental factors affecting transmission of sylvatic yellow fever in the 2017-2019 outbreak in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that, despite the existence of a safe and effective vaccine, continues to cause outbreaks of varying dimensions in the Americas and Africa. Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil registered un unprecedented sylvatic YFV outbreak whose severity was the result of its spread into zones of the Atlantic Forest with no signals of viral circulation for nearly 80 years. METHODS: To investigate the influence of climatic, environmental, and ecological factors governing the dispersion and force of infection of YFV in a naïve area such as the landscape mosaic of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), we combined the analyses of a large set of data including entomological sampling performed before and during the 2017-2019 outbreak, with the geolocation of human and nonhuman primates (NHP) and mosquito infections. RESULTS: A greater abundance of Haemagogus mosquitoes combined with lower richness and diversity of mosquito fauna increased the probability of finding a YFV-infected mosquito. Furthermore, the analysis of functional traits showed that certain functional groups, composed mainly of Aedini mosquitoes which includes Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes, are also more representative in areas where infected mosquitoes were found. Human and NHP infections were more common in two types of landscapes: large and continuous forest, capable of harboring many YFV hosts, and patches of small forest fragments, where environmental imbalance can lead to a greater density of the primary vectors and high human exposure. In both, we show that most human infections (~ 62%) occurred within an 11-km radius of the finding of an infected NHP, which is in line with the flight range of the primary vectors. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our data suggest that entomological data and landscape composition analyses may help to predict areas permissive to yellow fever outbreaks, allowing protective measures to be taken to avoid human cases.

ArboAlvo: stratification method for territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses / ArboAlvo: método de estratificação da receptividade territorial às arboviroses urbanas

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory. METHODS Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra. RESULTS The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs - higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%). CONCLUSION The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Apresentar a metodologia de estratificação das arboviroses urbanas (dengue, zika e chikungunya) pelo índice de receptividade territorial, instrumento de vigilância e controle dessas doenças que considera a heterogeneidade territorial intramunicipal. MÉTODOS Estudo ecológico que utiliza como unidade de análise as áreas de abrangência dos centros de saúde de Belo Horizonte (MG). Para a construção do índice de receptividade territorial foram selecionados indicadores de determinação socioambiental das arboviroses urbanas a fim de integrar à análise de componentes principais. As componentes resultantes foram ponderadas por análise de processos hierárquicos e agregadas por meio de álgebra de mapas. RESULTADOS O índice de receptividade territorial evidenciou grande heterogeneidade das condições de infraestrutura urbana. As áreas classificadas como alta e muito alta receptividade correspondem a aproximadamente 33% da área ocupada e se concentram sobretudo nas regiões de planejamento administrativo Leste, Nordeste, Norte, Oeste e Barreiro, principalmente em áreas limítrofes do município. Quando sobrepostas à densidade de casos de dengue e de ovos de Aedes em 2016, a estratificação pelo índice de receptividade territorial às arboviroses urbanas demonstra que áreas de muito alta receptividade apresentam uma densidade de casos, bem como de ovos de Aedes superior àquela observada nas demais áreas da cidade, o que corresponde a um percentual bastante reduzido do território municipal (13,5%). CONCLUSÕES As análises indicam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de ações de vigilância e controle adequadas para cada contexto, superando, assim, a lógica de alocação homogênea em todo o território.

Arboalvo: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno / Arboalvo: territorial stratification for definition of areas for prompt response by surveillance and timely control of urban arbovirus infections / Arboalvo: estratificación territorial para la definición de áreas de respuesta rápida para la vigilancia y control de arbovirosis urbanas en el momento oportuno

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de "Pronta Resposta" modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

The study aimed to present the methodological proposal entitled "Prompt Response", modelled in the cities of Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais State) and Natal (Rio Grande do Norte State), Brazil. The proposal aims to identify and demarcate priority areas for timely targeting of surveillance activities, aiming to reduce the intensity and velocity in the spread of epidemics in endemic urban areas. The methodology uses three variables that represent the necessary causes for the production and reproduction of dengue: notified cases (virus), Aedes eggs (vector), and population (host). This was an ecological study that used data from three information planes aggregated in finer temporal and spatial scales of 3 to 4 weeks and 400 to 600-meter grids, respectively. The prompt response areas were defined by Scan statistical analysis with definition of simultaneous spatial clusters for the three planes via the SaTScan program. In Natal, the areas defined as prompt response occupied, on average, 15.2% of the city's territory and concentrated 67.77% of the dengue cases in the period following demarcation of the prompt response areas. In Belo Horizonte, the observed proportions were 64.16% of cases in 23.23% of the territory. These results were obtained in two cities with different socioenvironmental and geographic realities and distinct epidemiological profiles, indicating that the methodology can be applied to different urban realities, allowing control programs to concentrate on reduced portions of the territory and impacting a high percentage of cases in timely fashion.

El objetivo del trabajo fue presentar la propuesta metodológica, denominada de "Resposta Rápida", modelada en las ciudades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) y Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. Esta última tiene como meta identificar y delimitar áreas prioritarias para la ejecución de acciones de vigilancia en el momento oportuno, buscando la reducción de la intensidad y velocidad de la dispersión de epidemias en áreas urbanas endémicas. Para tal fin, la metodología utiliza tres variables, que representan las causas necesarias para la producción y reproducción del dengue: casos notificados (virus), huevos de Aedes (vector) y población (huésped). Se trata de un estudio ecológico que utilizó los datos de los tres planos de información agregados en escalas temporales y espaciales más finas, de 3 a 4 semanas y tablas de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. Las áreas de respuesta rápida se definieron a través del análisis estadístico de exploración Scan, con definición de clústeres espaciales simultáneos para los tres planos mediante el programa SaTScan. Los resultados observados fueron: en la ciudad de Natal, las áreas definidas como de respuesta rápida ocuparon de media un 15,2% del territorio del municipio y concentraron un 67,77% de los casos de dengue del período posterior al utilizado en la delimitación de las áreas de respuesta rápida y, en Belo Horizonte, los números observados fueron un 64,16% de los casos en un 23,23% del territorio. Estos resultados se obtuvieron en dos ciudades con realidades socioambientales y geográficas diferentes y con perfiles epidemiológicos también distintos, apuntando que la metodología se puede aplicar en diferentes realidades urbanas. Dando la posibilidad de que los programas de control actúen en secciones reducidas del territorio e impactar en un alto porcentaje de casos en el momento oportuno.

The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.

Production of Urban Space and the occurrence of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon: the Porto Velho case.

Due to intense ongoing urbanization in the Amazon, the urban pattern of malaria may be changing, both in its spatial distribution and epidemiological profile. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the process of production of urban space in Porto Velho, the capital of the state of Rondonia, Brazil has contributed to the occurrence and maintenance of urban malaria. Using data collected from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVEP-Malaria), we calculated malaria indices for the districts of Porto Velho from 2005 to 2018. We also developed two typologies for classifying urban space based on functional characteristics and features of the landscape. While the former considers characteristics of urban space in Porto Velho, the latter is based on suitability for malaria vectors. We found that the annual parasite index declined in Porto Velho during the study period. However, changes in the index were not uniform across the districts of the city. Periurban areas showed no decline in the index, which we attribute to these areas' high vegetation density and hydrological characteristics.